01/01/06 predict.06 [Please send me suggestions for more] [Added comment about Libya and Venezuela on May 16] PREDICTIONS FROM JANUARY 1, 2006 The greatest prediction I can make at the moment is that the now infamous ".com boom" of the United States should shortly be reflected in a new ".com boom" of the entire world. As some of you may recall, my predictions for the .com boom, as far is the US went, were that no one would pay attention, and they would think they could keep doubling their markets, again, and again, and again, even after they had crossed the 50% saturation level that means you can never double again. Duh! If the .com "billionaires," my friends among them, had quite simply realized that once the US got near 50% of the market, that it was time to start selling and get into a new market, then they would still have their billions. Today the world Internet market share is about 1/6 of people in the world population, but that includes 3/4 in the US and about 1/11 China. . .a vast difference. For those who think in terms of Globalization, there is none better in the current stack of opportunities that to work up a Global ".com boom" complete with a "World Today" newspaper just like the "USA Today" newspaper that came out when their technology advanced to the point of making newspapers HERE & then sending the printing instructions THERE. Probably some time around a year from now the world realizes that the "S" curve of world growth has hit the same point on the curve as when the US .com boom took off, and that entire world Internet population growth is going to be massive in a period of growth from 25% to 75%, and that billions and even trillions of dollars can be made if their cards play right. * In the shorter term predictions I have: 1 Million Full Text Free Downloadable eBooks in 2009 Terabyte Drive Boxes Become Commonplace Before 2009 Medical Industry Will Undergo Oil Type Growth Investigations As The Profit-Taking and Executive Compensation Are Revealed I can't stress enough, even at this late date, keep your eye on China and India. . .I've been saying this for years and I continue to put it at the top of the list of world events. Expect to see more oil-related politicking, such as the news of simultaneous Carrots for Libya and Sticks for Venezuela. Also expect the oil companies to keep putting down alternate energy plans, other than nuclear power plants. No one wants to see a land dotted with windmills. . .how ugly! Photoelectric grids will once again double in efficiency but the prices will still be astronomical. 3-D Printing, Rapid Prototyping, and Replicator Technologies will grow like crazy, but will the media never mention them? Why, because the media has a vested interest in advertising, so anything that does not generate advertising or ratings is not going to be covered. Why do you think the media gave it billion dollars worth of coverage as Google invented eBooks, but have not given 1% of that coverage to the nearly million eBook files already out there in full text? Money? Speaking of money, I predict the continuation of what I call "Mega-Merger-Mania" even if the Democrats are back in power. Mega-Merger-Mania is the response to Big Business with a new Bigger Business to the point of Biggest Business. There are now dozens of corporate structures larger, richer, and more powerful than 90% of the nations in the world: and this trend is going on as the rich continue to get richer as the poor continue to get poorer on local, regional, national and on international scales. You'll see billions and billions of dollars heading off from everywhere to land in the corporate coffers of international mega-corporations from even the poorest countries. Examples in the recent limelight are Exxon, and Halliburton, Cheney's corporate interest, but those are just the tip of an iceberg armada that could sink a feel of Titanics. However, don't expect the media to report corporate warfare, or even national economic warfare, as has resulted in recent resolutions passed by national parliaments not to extend the copyright terms when pressured by the Big Boys, only to fall under the foot of the economic elephant in the middle of the international room that no one talks about. Why don't you hear about this? Because the media, and their advertisers, live on copyright. * However, there ARE limits, as will be seen as book publisher monopolies reach their economic peak power point, and slide, slide, slide, as people refuse to continue paying 40 times a publisher's initial price for paperbacks. I just bought a copy of Animal Farm, by George Orwell and it says $7.98 as the US price, and I am sure that with research any of you can find editions that say $.50. In 1955 the average price of a paperback was $.25. In 2005 the average price of a paperback was $7.98. And I am not even counting those ridiculous high priced, new paperback types in the range between "mass market" & "trade" paperbacks that have now wiped out, totally eliminated older editions that used to be priced at $.25 & $.50. I still remember the first $.95 paperback, and how they said it would never sell back in 1957, a "sequel of sorts" to the $.75 predecessor by the same author. The same author had an assortment of books out, priced as little as $.50, but now a $10 barrier has been reached with "mass market" paperbacks & the new "trade" editions are taking over, double the price. Of course, I'm also not counting the cheapy paperbacks for a kids market, really not much more than coloring books. However, all in all, I think you'll find that the paperbacks today that were $.25 in 1955 are going to cost $7 to $9 from Erle Stanley Gardner's Perry Mason Mysteries, to the Jessica Fletcher Murder She Wrote Mysteries, but obviously not Hardy Boys and Nancy Drew Mysteries, just to cover mystery books. However, I as mentioned above, I think this has maxxed out-- and that you'll hear, or not hear if the media doesn't want, that the book industry has peaked, and is now failing. * So, you are NOT hearing about freely downloadable eBooks for everyone to own, but you ARE hearing about Google's eBooks-- which are not available in catalogues, not always available, period, particularly for download, and not even eBooks by an earlier standard set by The Library of Congress stating that eBooks should be proofread at least to a 99.5% accuracy. As you may have heard, the Project Gutenberg volunteers, and particularly the Distributed Proofreaders, have taken 99.5%, and replaced it with ever higher standards to the point when a recent study tried to pick out the 1% least accurate books and improve these, but a professional proofreader was unable to find any that were even 99.75% accurate. However, all of the Project Gutenberg library is continually being improved, in terms of accuracy, cataloguing, format selection, etc. * These are some of my predictions for the near future. Please let me know if you have more topics to suggest! Thanks!!! Michael